2052 Energy Forecasts are WRONG

Why EIA, IEA and Randers' 2052 Energy Forecasts are Wrong

By Gail Tverberg

What is the correct way to model the future course of energy and the economy? There are clearly huge amounts of oil, coal, and natural gas in the ground.  With different approaches, researchers can obtain vastly different indications. I will show that the real issue is most researchers are modeling the wrong limit.

Most researchers assume that the limit that they should be concerned with is the amount of oil, coal, and natural gas in the ground. This is the wrong limit. While in theory we will eventually hit this limit, because of the way fossil fuels are integrated into the rest of the economy, we hit financial limits much earlier. These financial limits include lack of investment capital, inability of governments to collect enough taxes to fund their programs, and widespread debt defaults.

One of the things I show in this post is that Economic Growth is a positive feedback loop that is enabled by cheap energy sources. (Economists have postulated that Economic Growth is permanent, and has no connection to energy sources.) Economic Growth turns to economic contraction as the cost of energy extraction (broadly defined) rises. It is the change in this feedback loop that leads to the financial problems mentioned above.  These effects tend to lead to collapse over a period of years (perhaps 10 or 20, we really don’t know), rather than a slow decline which is easily mitigated.

If, indeed, most analysts are concerned about the wrong limit, this has huge implications for energy policy: Read More

Running on Empty - Has  Implications?

The Wealth of Planets

**Also watch  the most IMPORTANT video you'll ever see below**
*Over THREE Million Views World Wide*



"Yes Mr Smith, the Invisible Hand lead us to our final destiny"

  The Most IMPORTANT ECONOMIC Blog Ever


THE WEALTH OF PLANETS
 

Introduction and Purpose

Humanity’s course is clearly in the grips of a fate that is accelerating it to a final destiny. We are at a crossroad. Our choices at this crossroad are defined by two paths, either to slow the pace of our journey to extinction or to carry on as before with exponential speed. Preference is sensibly given to the former, as it provides some time for a possibility to put the proverbial house back in order, thereby extending the fate of our species. Central to achieving this order of utilities are global economic frameworks and beliefs aimed at prolonging human activity and resource supplies.

Currency constructs play a major role in how we go about organizing our economic activities and conceptions. In turn their implementation affects whether we venture towards a more sustainable path of existence or move in rapid concert towards our final demise. Thus, this abstract briefly examines and illustrates the nature of currency and surrogates. It provides a possible redefinition of the conceptual process leading to the creation of currency and management of economies. A process that is aimed at more directly managing object concrete constructs – more particularly, non-renewable resources.

In short, “it plants the seed” for a  revised view related to the printing of money (currency) that embeds a concurrent goal of sustaining and allocating resources of the planet for as long as possible… “Thus, deferring our final curtain”.

Paper Currency or Gold?

The view that gold and similar assets will act as alternate currencies in the immediate term is apparent and unfolding. Gold, in particular is still a feel good visible abstract and not a concrete construct with diverse utility. Gold has operated with this unique psychological characteristic through-out civilized history, a perceived store of magical invisible value. In the last analysis however, the trading of this abstract (gold) for another abstract (paper currency) as a last store of value is redundant unless it is also tied to usable concrete constructs with utility.

The Wizard of Oz, parody, sheds historic light on the on-going forces within societies that debated for decades the contrasting values of paper currency and surrogate constructs, such as gold. An impossible debate to conclude. There is no form of object reasoning or algebra that may be applied to analyze “two visible abstracts” to form an absolute utilitarian answer. Add into the mix the perception or notion of magical powers … the social conversation then shifts from the parody of Oz to the fairytale of Alice in Wonderland. A collective insanity of sorts.

Currency Extinction

  

This redundancy issue and lack of magic that these constructs hold will become increasing apparent as the human race runs quickly towards resource exhaustion and a resultant extinction. Ultimately extinction is a mathematical reality. The course of any wasting finite constructs plotted against the infinity of time (abstract), intersects at a point where a final state occurs. In stages before the intersection, both currency and surrogates move to a point of becoming worthless. Simply because these visible abstracts can no longer be exchanged for concrete constructs with utility. There are too few left.

Easter Island and more recently the country of Nauru have provided examples of what happens when resources are depleted. Those who argue that these defacto extinctions occurred because these were small and isolated geographies on the planet need a dose of quantum perspective. Earth is a small and isolated place in the context of a vast unimaginable universe. We would be wise to heed this quiet warning. Very wise indeed.

What are the Choices?

What to do? What concepts of currency align best with sustaining human survival for a longer period? Existential economics suggests that the currency construct and creation should centre more on a balance sheet approach as opposed to the income statement approach commonly used. a.k.a., GDP. There are important simple distinctions between the two. One favours the past, the other the future. One favours consumption, the other savings.

The income statement approach - GDP is a measure or report on the history of what aggregate economic activity occurred over a period. When currency is created based on a nation’s GDP it assumes an on-going relationship between past and possible future activities. The currency created takes no measure of a nation’s ability to continue to produce such goods and services in the future. For instance, in the extreme case when all of a nation’s resources were consumed in the past GDP period, then all of its currency has no future value. No store of value whatsoever and it can no longer be exchanged for concrete objects with utility.

Income Statement Shortcomings

Flaws with this approach are clear. First, there is no firm relationship between the currency created based on past GDP and the future utility it purports to convey for exchange. In fact it is created simply by extending the past goods and services mix produced. The likely future production mix based on productive capacity and resources is largely discounted in its creation. Any budgetary deficit further fuels the unsound relationship and the use of resources currently

Second, it sets the stage for the rapid waste and use of resources by encouraging sequential increases of GDP, with little regard for future supply shortages of key economic elements. Ironically, the math of finites invisibly works (“the invisible foot”©) against this approach as we rush to produce much more today, for a lot less output tomorrow faster. Again adding deficits compounds the rapid use of resources and essentially makes the “outright theft” of the non-renewable resources belonging to future generations legitimate. Something just does not make sense, neither is it responsible nor fair.

Balance Sheet Approach for Future

In light of this, it seems to make more sense to print and distribute currency tied to only current concrete resources and capacities of a nation and their abilities to create future utility… its balance sheet. These concrete constructs of the balance sheet may be broken into five elements: renewable and non-renewable resources; physical and conceptual infrastructures; plus human capital. These are the five key concrete constructs of a nation’s balance sheet. (Conceptual and human capital are concrete constructs for purposes of this discussion).It is then important to rank their value, so as to properly focus on their management and long-term use.

The ranking of balance sheet constructs places non-renewable resources at the top of the list of elements for reasons of need and limits. In metaphorical terms they may be viewed as the lifeblood, insulin or oxygen that all the other economic elements require in order to exist and function. They are extremely precious and important because they cannot be renewed. Ever. (Assuming we never learn all the laws of the universe in order to create matter and energy at will?). This leads to an illustration using oil to show how such elements determine the viability of a nation.

Planet OIL a Case Study

For illustration purposes, assume oil is the only non-renewable resource that exists on this case planet - Planet OIL. There are no other resources. And no replacements. It is finite. It is the lifeblood of economic activity and its species concerns. Therefore it is also the true currency for the economy of Planet OIL as all other elements are derived and exist because of it.

Planet Oil’s circumstances raise many interesting observations and questions. But first let us divide the planet into two nations where each owns a 100 year supply of oil. No population growth. No pollution. No weapons. Two very nice places. One nation is called the Rapidusers and the other is called the Slowusers.

The Rapidusers consume twice as much oil (a two year supply yearly) as the Slowusers. Relatively their economy is booming twice as fast as the Slowusers. Their GDP is twice as big and its currency is valued at twice the value of the poor ole Slowusers. What currency really has greater value? What nation would you prefer to live in for the next 75 years?  The answers with a little math should be self-evident

Now in 40 years their currencies are still valued at a two to one ratio in favour of the Rapidusers based on GDP. However their oil reserves are only good for another 10 years while the Slowusers have a supply good to last 60 years. Dr. New Economist comes along and says the GDP approach (income statement) for your currencies is wrong and they should be based on the respective nations’ balance sheets …their likely future utilities.

Overnight currency markets panic and are engulfed in historic sensational trading volumes. The next morning the currencies are realigned. Slowusers currency is now valued at six times the value of Rapidusers…a 1200% increase. The Rapidusers nation falls into chaos with financial meltdowns, business closures, massive unemployment, political upheaval and social unrest. It was heart-breaking. The party is over

  

While this story hints of today’s realities, what is clear is that creating currencies, managing resources, economies and lives of nations based solely on a GDP approach may lead to disastrous outcomes. The value of a nation and its currency is better based on a balance sheet approach tied to concrete constructs to assure its longer-term stability and sustainability

.

Real Life Application?

    

What if real currencies are valued and tied to the productive capacity and resources of a nation – its balance sheet? Will it change present currency values? Yes, it may. Compare Canada and the US resource reserves on a "per capita basis" and an answer is somewhat evident. It may be asserted that the US dollar is worth .15 in Canadian dollars terms based on resource reserves divided by population (balance sheet per capita) Compare this figure to the parity ascribed by current markets. The difference relates to perhaps the GDP bias, historical perceptions and sadly the US military/industrial complex.

Summation

The balance sheet approach conveys a different story of value and sustainability. No approach is perfect. A mixture of the two approaches in the end should serve to provide a better way to manage and sustain longer-term economic activities. But, to ignore a bias of emphasis towards the balance sheet approach places our travels on this planet in great peril.  

And, we should wisely heed quiet warnings…

First Financial Insights

Toronto ON

"The Most IMPORTANT Video

You'll Ever See"

A very special thanks to a dear late friend,  Dr. Albert A Bartlett, Professor Emeritus of Nuclear Physics, University of Colorado at Boulder,  for his ongoing work and passion in this area of grave human concern, as well as his inspiration and permission to use the video included in this blog. His unyielding efforts pass on a great heroic legacy to many coming generations; that so few bravely achieve, for so many. Thank you.

http://www.albartlett.org/

One small step...

The conceptual duality that creates a wall between the theories of economics and the principles of both science and mathematics cannot persist should we desire to move
the human condition forward. Today, we tear down that wall. Today, we build the bridge. Today, we light the candles of possibilities...

Dream…then go do great things

The Wealth of Planets

**Also watch  the most IMPORTANT video you'll ever see below**
*Over THREE Million Views World Wide*



"Yes Mr Smith, the Invisible Hand lead us to our final destiny"

  The Most IMPORTANT ECONOMIC Blog Ever


THE WEALTH OF PLANETS
 

Introduction and Purpose

Humanity’s course is clearly in the grips of a fate that is accelerating it to a final destiny. We are at a crossroad. Our choices at this crossroad are defined by two paths, either to slow the pace of our journey to extinction or to carry on as before with exponential speed. Preference is sensibly given to the former, as it provides some time for a possibility to put the proverbial house back in order, thereby extending the fate of our species. Central to achieving this order of utilities are global economic frameworks and beliefs aimed at prolonging human activity and resource supplies.

Currency constructs play a major role in how we go about organizing our economic activities and conceptions. In turn their implementation affects whether we venture towards a more sustainable path of existence or move in rapid concert towards our final demise. Thus, this abstract briefly examines and illustrates the nature of currency and surrogates. It provides a possible redefinition of the conceptual process leading to the creation of currency and management of economies. A process that is aimed at more directly managing object concrete constructs – more particularly, non-renewable resources.

In short, “it plants the seed” for a  revised view related to the printing of money (currency) that embeds a concurrent goal of sustaining and allocating resources of the planet for as long as possible… “Thus, deferring our final curtain”.

Paper Currency or Gold?

The view that gold and similar assets will act as alternate currencies in the immediate term is apparent and unfolding. Gold, in particular is still a feel good visible abstract and not a concrete construct with diverse utility. Gold has operated with this unique psychological characteristic through-out civilized history, a perceived store of magical invisible value. In the last analysis however, the trading of this abstract (gold) for another abstract (paper currency) as a last store of value is redundant unless it is also tied to usable concrete constructs with utility.

The Wizard of Oz, parody, sheds historic light on the on-going forces within societies that debated for decades the contrasting values of paper currency and surrogate constructs, such as gold. An impossible debate to conclude. There is no form of object reasoning or algebra that may be applied to analyze “two visible abstracts” to form an absolute utilitarian answer. Add into the mix the perception or notion of magical powers … the social conversation then shifts from the parody of Oz to the fairytale of Alice in Wonderland. A collective insanity of sorts.

Currency Extinction

  

This redundancy issue and lack of magic that these constructs hold will become increasing apparent as the human race runs quickly towards resource exhaustion and a resultant extinction. Ultimately extinction is a mathematical reality. The course of any wasting finite constructs plotted against the infinity of time (abstract), intersects at a point where a final state occurs. In stages before the intersection, both currency and surrogates move to a point of becoming worthless. Simply because these visible abstracts can no longer be exchanged for concrete constructs with utility. There are too few left.

Easter Island and more recently the country of Nauru have provided examples of what happens when resources are depleted. Those who argue that these defacto extinctions occurred because these were small and isolated geographies on the planet need a dose of quantum perspective. Earth is a small and isolated place in the context of a vast unimaginable universe. We would be wise to heed this quiet warning. Very wise indeed.

What are the Choices?

What to do? What concepts of currency align best with sustaining human survival for a longer period? Existential economics suggests that the currency construct and creation should centre more on a balance sheet approach as opposed to the income statement approach commonly used. a.k.a., GDP. There are important simple distinctions between the two. One favours the past, the other the future. One favours consumption, the other savings.

The income statement approach - GDP is a measure or report on the history of what aggregate economic activity occurred over a period. When currency is created based on a nation’s GDP it assumes an on-going relationship between past and possible future activities. The currency created takes no measure of a nation’s ability to continue to produce such goods and services in the future. For instance, in the extreme case when all of a nation’s

resources were consumed in the past GDP period, then all of its currency has no future value. No store of value whatsoever and it can no longer be exchanged for concrete objects with utility.

Income Statement Shortcomings

Flaws with this approach are clear. First, there is no firm relationship between the currency created based on past GDP and the future utility it purports to convey for exchange. In fact it is created simply by extending the past goods and services mix produced. The likely future production mix based on productive capacity and resources is largely discounted in its creation. Any budgetary deficit further fuels the unsound relationship and the use of resources currently

Second, it sets the stage for the rapid waste and use of resources by encouraging sequential increases of GDP, with little regard for future supply shortages of key economic elements. Ironically, the math of finites invisibly works (“the invisible foot”©) against this approach as we rush to produce much more today, for a lot less output tomorrow faster. Again adding deficits compounds the rapid use of resources and essentially makes the “outright theft” of the non-renewable resources belonging to future generations legitimate. Something just does not make sense, neither is it responsible nor fair.

Balance Sheet Approach for Future

In light of this, it seems to make more sense to print and distribute currency tied to only current concrete resources and capacities of a nation and their abilities to create future utility… its balance sheet. These concrete constructs of the balance sheet may be broken into five elements: renewable and non-renewable resources; physical and conceptual infrastructures; plus human capital. These are the five key concrete constructs of a nation’s balance sheet. (Conceptual and human capital are concrete constructs for purposes of this discussion).It is then important to rank their value, so as to properly focus on their management and long-term use.

The ranking of balance sheet constructs places non-renewable resources at the top of the list of elements for reasons of need and limits. In metaphorical terms they may be viewed as the lifeblood, insulin or oxygen that all the other economic elements require in order to exist and function. They are extremely precious and important because they cannot be renewed. Ever. (Assuming we never learn all the laws of the universe in order to create matter and energy at will?). This leads to an illustration using oil to show how such elements determine the viability of a nation.

Planet OIL a Case Study

For illustration purposes, assume oil is the only non-renewable resource that exists on this case planet - Planet OIL. There are no other resources. And no replacements. It is finite. It is the lifeblood of economic activity and its species concerns. Therefore it is also the true currency for the economy of Planet OIL as all other elements are derived and exist because of it.

Planet Oil’s circumstances raise many interesting observations and questions. But first let us divide the planet into two nations where each owns a 100 year supply of oil. No population growth. No pollution. No weapons. Two very nice places. One nation is called the Rapidusers and the other is called the Slowusers.

The Rapidusers consume twice as much oil (a two year supply yearly) as the Slowusers. Relatively their economy is booming twice as fast as the Slowusers. Their GDP is twice as big and its currency is valued at twice the value of the poor ole Slowusers. What currency really has greater value? What nation would you prefer to live in for the next 75 years?  The answers with a little math should be self-evident

Now in 40 years their currencies are still valued at a two to one ratio in favour of the Rapidusers based on GDP. However their oil reserves are only good for another 10 years while the Slowusers have a supply good to last 60 years. Dr. New Economist comes along and says the GDP approach (income statement) for your currencies is wrong and they should be based on the respective nations’ balance sheets …their likely future utilities.

Overnight currency markets panic and are engulfed in historic sensational trading volumes. The next morning the currencies are realigned. Slowusers currency is now valued at six times the value of Rapidusers…a 1200% increase. The Rapidusers nation falls into chaos with financial meltdowns, business closures, massive unemployment, political upheaval and social unrest. It was heart-breaking. The party is over

  

While this story hints of today’s realities, what is clear is that creating currencies, managing resources, economies and lives of nations based solely on a GDP approach may lead to disastrous outcomes. The value of a nation and its currency is better based on a balance sheet approach tied to concrete constructs to assure its longer-term stability and sustainability

.

Real Life Application?

    

What if real currencies are valued and tied to the productive capacity and resources of a nation – its balance sheet? Will it change present currency values? Yes, it may. Compare Canada and the US resource reserves on a "per capita basis" and an answer is somewhat evident. It may be asserted that the US dollar is worth .15 in Canadian dollars terms based on resource reserves divided by population (balance sheet per capita) Compare this figure to the parity ascribed by current markets. The difference relates to perhaps the GDP bias, historical perceptions and sadly the US military/industrial complex.

Summation

The balance sheet approach conveys a different story of value and sustainability. No approach is perfect. A mixture of the two approaches in the end should serve to provide a better way to manage and sustain longer-term economic activities. But, to ignore a bias of emphasis towards the balance sheet approach places our travels on this planet in great peril.  

And, we should wisely heed quiet warnings…

First Financial Insights

Toronto ON

"The Most IMPORTANT Video

You'll Ever See"

A very special thanks to a dear late friend,  Dr. Albert A Bartlett, Professor Emeritus of Nuclear Physics, University of Colorado at Boulder,  for his ongoing work and passion in this area of grave human concern, as well as his inspiration and permission to use the video included in this blog. His unyielding efforts pass on a great heroic legacy to many coming generations; that so few bravely achieve, for so many. Thank you.

http://www.albartlett.org/

One small step...

The conceptual duality that creates a wall between the theories of economics and the principles of both science and mathematics cannot persist should we desire to move
the human condition forward. Today, we tear down that wall. Today, we build the bridge. Today, we light the candles of possibilities...

Dream…then go do great things

STOP PRINTING MONEY???

The Problem will appear when the Central Banks stop Printing Money Artificially

Read More

There is one big problem with Jim's statement - Central Banks have alway and will always print money artificially. Why? First: How is money created? Where is it born? Who creates it? The answers to  these questions are actually quite simple. Money is created by virtue of a journal entry by a Central Banker in their books of account. There is little "physical" rhyme or reason for its creation, as the basis for authorizing the entry is a decision made by policy-makers based on the circumstances of the time. So the amount of entry is not determined by a set tried and true formula tied to GDP or any similar economic measure. It is largely arbitrary. 

So the paper you hold in your hands, bank accounts or use to ascribe other assets value is existentially nothing more than the fiat offspring of a Central Banker's accounting entry. It is not tied to national resources or future resource output potential in anyway - that would put  too much science into this mystical journal entry and money printing process. By the way, the more we print the more global stock markets go up as shown:

Global Stock Market Growth Flat J -Curve (Exponential Upwards)

. 

Therein lies the real issue, because as national resources behind the money supply are exponentially depleted by expanding populations, so is the de facto value of each money unit that had ever or will ever be printed.Thus, creating the basis for another exponential J-curve, as there is an inverse relationship between printed money and exponential resource output depletion. (see charts below) More and more printed money is simply needed to preserve the statu quo perceptions and defer social unrest.

Global Money Supply Flat J-Curve (Exponential Upwards) 

Global Resource Depletion Flat J-curve (Exponential Upwards)

Global Population Growth Flat J-Curve (Exponential Upwards)

Debasement in a sense actually started when the very first dollar was printed. The above hockey-stick charts show a fairly clear relationship between the expanding expanding money supply, resource depletion and population growth, leading to two logical questions: What's left? How long will it last?  The chart below uses oil as a surrogate for resources - and as expected the J-curve is inverted to the money, depletion and population J-curves above.



Global OIL Production (Extraction) Declines - Flat J Curve (Trending to Exponential Downwards)

Not only do these charts paint an obviously  bleak picture - the most important observation is that they are all going the wrong way - Exponentially!  And so is the climate right along with it as population growth spurs a J-curve in climate change as well as can be seen in the undernoted chart.



Global Climate Change - Flat J Curve (Exponential Upwards)

Bottom line is that the printing of money actually correlates with the respective J-curves population growth, resource depletion and climate change. While they correlate the printing of money appears to affect everything in the wrong way. But regardless of causation or correlation all these charts are forming J-curves going the wrong way.  But most importantly, they are doing in EXPONENTIALLY!   

Now try explain these simple J-curves to Central Bankers in Greece, Cyprus, Spain, Portugal, Nauru, Japan, Italy, Ireland, and the rest. Money is de jure or legal evidence from the issuing state that it is obliged to pay its holder the stated value of resource outputs through its various agencies. All is fine until there are no further resource outputs because inputs no longer exist for conversion by the nation's economic processes . As we can see in individual real nations noted, as these J-Curves continue to accelerate, the economic effects and value of money diminishes by country, and should ultimately do so in an exponential manner globally.   

What next? Just keep reading the international headlines.

PLATINUM WEALTH PARTNERS

"Stop Printing Artificial Money"

Paul Chefurka's - "Paradise Lost"

“Paradise Lost” 

Paul Chefurka     

Many of us who have been paying attention to the state of the world over the last half century have now begun to realize with growing horror that the progressive deterioration we have been tracking shows no signs of resolution   In fact, to some of us it looks as though there is no way to resolve this deepening crisis. The end of the track is in sight. The planetary factory is in flames, and all the exit doors are barred.

Proposed technical solutions are utterly inadequate to the scale of the problem.  Many ideas like geoengineering will simply make matters worse.  There is no political constituency for degrowth – none at all.  There is precious little political support for even putting a light foot on the brake.  This road to Hell has been paved with the very best of intentions – giving our children a better life stands near the top of the list – but here we are nonetheless. The climate is signalling that our future may be a little warmer than we were expecting, once our seven-billion-passenger train passes those gates.

Now that the denouement is in sight, I’m setting aside the anger and outrage, the blame and shame, to focus my attention instead on why this outcome seems to have been utterly inevitable and unstoppable.

Why has this happened?  I don’t buy the traditional “broken morality” or “flawed genetics” arguments.  After all, our genetics seemed to be perfectly appropriate for a million years, and the elements of morality that some of us see as sub-optimal (the greed and shortsightedness) have been with us to varying degrees since before the days of Australopithecus. I don’t think it’s just a mistake on our part or a bug in the program – it appears to be a part of the program of life itself. It looks to me as though much deeper forces have been at work throughout human history, and have shaped this outcome.

The main difficulty I have with all the technical, political, economic and social reform proposals I've seen is that they run counter to some very deep-seated aspects of human behavior and decision-making.  Mainly, they assume that human intelligence and analytical ability control our behavior, and from what I've seen, that’s simply not true.  In fact it’s untrue to such an extent that I don’t even think it’s a “human” issue per se.

I have come to think that most of our collective choices and actions are shaped by physical forces so deep that they can’t even be called “genetic”.  I haven’t written anything definitive about this yet, but the conclusion I have come to in the last six months is that a physical principle called the "Maximum Entropy Production Principle”, which is closely related to the Second Law of Thermodynamics, actually underlies the structure of life itself.  Its operation has shaped the energy-seeking, replicative behavior of everything from bacteria to humans.  All our intelligence does is makes its operation more effective.

 

This principle is behind the appearance of life in the first place, has guided the development of genetic replication and natural selection, and has embedded itself in our behavior at the very deepest level. Like all life, our mandate is simple:  survive and reproduce so as to form a metastable dissipative structure.  All of human behavior and history has been oriented towards executing this mandate as effectively as possible.  This “survive and reproduce” program springs from a universal law of physics, much like gravity. As a result it even precedes genetics as a driver of human behavior.  And lest there be any lingering doubt about the connection to our current predicament, the survival imperative is what causes all living organisms to exhibit energy-seeking behavior.  Humans just do this better than any other organism in the history of the planet because of our intelligence.

In this context, the evolutionary fitness role of human intelligence is to act as a limit-removal mechanism, to circumvent any obstacles in the way of making make our growth in terms of energy use and reproduction more effective.  It’s why we are blind to the need for limits both as individuals (in general) and collectively as cultures.  We acknowledge limits only when they are so close as to present an immediate existential threat, as they were and are in hunter-gatherer societies. As a result we tend to make hard changes only in response to a crisis, not in advance of it.  Basically, the goal of life is to live rather than die, and to do this it must grow rather than shrink.  This imperative governs everything we think and do.

As a result, I don’t think humanity in general will put any kind of sustainability practices in place until long after they are actually needed (i.e. after population and consumption rates have begun to crash).  I don’t think it is possible for a group as large as 7 billion people to agree that such proactive measures are necessary.  We are as blind to the need for limits as a fish is to water and for similar reasons. After the crisis has incontrovertibly begun we’ll do all kinds of things, but by then we will be hampered by the climate crisis and by severe shortages of both resources and the technology needed to use them.

I have given up speculating on possible outcomes, because they are so inherently unpredictable, at least in detail.  But what I’m discovering about the way life works at a deep level makes me continually less optimistic.  I now think near-term human extinction (say within the next hundred years) has a significantly non-zero probability.

Our cybernetic civilization is approaching a "Kardashev Type 0/1 boundary" and I don’t think it's possible for us to make the jump to Type 1.  Like most other people, Kardashev misunderstood the underlying drivers of human behavior, assuming them to be a combination of ingenuity and free will.  We indeed have ingenuity, but only in the direction of growth (and damn the entropic consequences).  We can’t manage preemptive de-growth or even the application of the Precautionary Principle, because as a collective organism humanity doesn't actually have free will (despite what it feels like to us individual humans).  Instead we exhibit an emergent behavior that is entirely oriented towards growth.

 I see no purpose in wasting further physical, financial or emotional energy on trying to avoid the inevitable. Given our situation and what I think is its root cause, I generally tell people who see the unfolding crisis and want to make changes in their lives simply to follow their hearts and their personal values.  I'm not exactly advising them to “Eat, drink and be merry”, though.  You might think of it more as, “Eat, drink and be mindful.”

Paul Chefurka

August,2013

Ottawa,Canada

Comments:

We struggle to explain why the conventional economic doctrine battles the realities of existential economic science; the first hypothesizes an infinite positive sum-game for human activity, while the latter goes begging to find an wider audience for its voice - that asserts a finite negative sum-game, dictated by the physical constraints and the laws of exponential mathematics. These two beliefs are deeply conflicting with one another because the first chooses to ignore the governing rules of the universe, whereas the other proposes integration with science, physics and mathematics, in order to set a better path for human activity.

So in our search for explanations we look to other writers, scholars, thinkers and activists for insights into why our collective actions and theories act in defiance of realities by endorsing infinite growth doctrines that are not only impossible to continue any longer, but they also push our species along an accelerated path destined for premature extinction.

As Paul Chefurka sets out in “Paradise Lost” maybe there is nothing to be done or anything else that can be said. Our internal wiring is so connected to the natural forces of the universe that it causes us to pursue and use more energy to serve our primary purposes of survival and procreation. Call it an inborn energy-seeking behavior. We are then just an integral natural part of the second law of thermodynamics serving to further and accelerate the causes of entropy in the whole universe. That being the case, conventional economic doctrines sadly wins the battle, as it is clearly aligned with entropic forces that invisibly shapes the destiny of humanity, the universe and eternity.

Hence in our last analysis, it as certain as it gets that we cannot defeat eternity, but that in itself should not dissuade us from seeking to optimize our entropic relationship with the universe in pursuit of a longer path. Too many things could happen along the way!   

First Financial Insights

Toronto, ON

Links to Other Related Articles:

WHY ECONOMICS FAILS
http://firstfinancialinsights.blogspot.ca/2013/10/why-economics-fails.htmll

Infinity Express #Flight2100 - IMPORTANT PASSENGERS MESSAGE

http://firstfinancialinsights.blogspot.ca/2013/11/infinity-express-flight2100-important.html

Earth’s State of Population 
http://firstfinancialinsights.blogspot.ca/2013/10/earths-state-of-population.html

Humanity’s Top Priorities
http://firstfinancialinsights.blogspot.ca/2013/10/humanitys-top-priorities.html

Visit Paul's Website - More Articles and Insights

www.paulchefurka.ca